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January 01, 2005

2005年市場予想






2005年NTL市場予想

2005年以後の日経平均、投資市場は?

謹賀新年

ネット内の個人研究所であるNTL(西東京

総研)が個人投資家に向けて今後の予想を

してみました(主任研究員 樋口)。

私は小額ですが自分の資産をヘッジファン

ド風に運用してヘッジファンド的予想報を

出してます(現在、今後も?無料ですが一

切の保証はありません)。以下
お年玉です。


大納会

http://stocks.nifty.com/cgibin/quote/query?r=3m&c=1001&s=&color=&t=

短期の3ヶ月チャートは上記の通りである。

今年の大納会は前年比812円高の11488円で終わ

った。当研究所の11月末の予想の11500円よりも

12円安となった。しかし、前年の12月に行った予想

では2004年末は13000円だったので不本意な結

果ではある。



(http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/)

http://quote.yahoo.co.jp/q?s=998407.o&d=c&k=c3&a=v&p=m130,m260,s&t=ay&l=off&z=m&q=c&h=on

4月高値と5月安値を起点とする「三画持ち合い」から

脱出し上昇ラインを目指し始めた。ゴールデンクロス(

いわば上昇開始点)がまじかであるであることは上記の

チャートからも分かると思う。統計上1月は75%が上

昇している。

産業別には金融界が高くで大手銀行(メガバンク)、証

券が良かった。次いで不動産、医薬品も良好。構造改革

というよりもそれに触発された民間の努力によるところ

が大きい。

私の個人的なつながりでは富士通が上昇しNECを上まわ

る数値も出てきた。

しかしながら、何といっても良いのは個人投資家が買い

を入れていると思われる中低位株である。

2003年はネット証券を用いた個人投資元年であった

が2004年はさらにそれは加速した。

東京市場における投資層は1位が外国人投資家で2位が

日本の個人投資家、そして(法人)機関投資家となった。

3割、3割、残り4割というところか。

外国人投資家(ヘッジファンドも含むが)VS個人投資家の

図式は変わらないだろう。市場の覇権はどちらに傾くか?

市場の形成という意味ではどちらも所持期間が短めなので

長期の保有を試みたいものである。実際の所、売買が多い

層は長期的に見て利益が少ないといわれる。

個人的には個別銘柄現物は日経平均10000円以下で買い、

12000円台で様子をみて売るようにしている。

中期投資である。これからは10000円台で買いだと思う。



NY市場(ダウ)も回顧したいと思う。

12/30の最終値は下落し前日比28,89ドル安の10

800ドルである。今日の市場はチャートとグローべッ

クスから考えると小幅上昇か下落だと思われる。

市場参加者はクリスマス休暇(12/20頃から1/1)

で少ない上、高値警戒感から売られやすいと思われる。

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=

グローべックス

http://homepage2.nifty.com/mom/kabu/globex.html

ここ5年の市場史は以下の通りである。

(http://finance.yahoo.com/)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=

全市場のデータ

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=

NYダウの値の動きは「911」事件後を除いて順調上

昇で推移してきている。その下降も全市場の歴史から

してみればわずかな動きに過ぎないことが分かる。

アメリカ合衆国の世界において低下しない限りこの上

昇は止まらないと考えられる。

確かにアメリカも歴史上の一大国であり、多くの大国

にも盛衰があったように今後世界の表舞台から姿を消

す可能性は高い。その原因はまず、良く指摘されるよ

うに巨大な軍事費とそれに伴う財政赤字、そして経常

赤字にあることはいうまでもない。

次にいえるのは極端な2極分化である。アメリカにお

いては日本以上に「勝ち組」「負け組」の差が大きく

かつ、十分な対策もなされてない。

しかし、まだ問題が深刻化したわけでないので200

5年の市場への影響は限定的である。1)

NYダウの2005年度のレンジは

10500ドル〜11500ドル


年初12000ドルを目指す展開もあるか

も知れない。しかし、地政学的リスク、特に中東情勢

など突発的な事件があれば10000ドルという展開

もあるだろう。



ドル円相場

チャート

http://cx.himawari-group.co.jp/

http://cx.himawari-group.co.jp/index.cfm?fuseaction=chart.index

昨年秋から相対的に円高が続いている。しかし、急激

な円高は考えにくく、3月の決算期が近付けば例年の

とおり介入が行われる公算が大きく、その際は110

円程度もあり得る。年度後半日本市場が自立的に回復

し、13000円の声を聞けば、ドルは相対的に低下

し90円台もあるかもしれない。

レンジは95円から110円と思われる。

特に100円前後ではドルは「買い」である。

金相場

金については以下を参考

http://www.mmc.co.jp/

http://www.mmc.co.jp/gold/advice/toshima/index.html

2005年はドル安にはじまり、中国の金も解禁される。

中国人は光り物好きとされる。中国の国民のうち、1

億人でも金を1グラム買ったらどうなるだろうか。

雑誌などでも云われていることである。しかし、中

国の政治体制から考えて白熱すれば介入が入るだろ

う。

レンジは400ドル〜500ドル。



以上から考えて日経平均の2005年のレンジは

11000円から12000円。

年末は13000円の声を聞くかも知れない。


酉(とり)年は羽ばたくが騒がしいともされ相場は荒

れ気味だろう。

しかも、日本は朝鮮2)中東情勢3)など地政学リスク

をもっとも受けやすい。その際、原油高なども考えら

れ、回復途上の日本経済に水をさすかも知れない。

その場合は10000円台もあり得る。特に1150

0円以上ではプットのワラントやオプションも付ける

必要がある。

分割画面

1)

現在の人口(特に若年層)、国土、そして経済成長率

からいくとこの国の後継者は中国といわれる。日本も

一時的に世界の首位になりうる可能性はあるが短期間

に終わる可能性は高い。現行内閣の構造改革が終了あ

るいは民間の努力によって改革を終えたとして201

0年前後に世界の先頭に立つかも知れない。しかしな

がら、人口、国土の面積、少子高齢化の問題から短命

に終わると想定される。そのころ北京オリンピック、

万博を終えた中国に抜かれる。

しかし、中国も現在のアメリカのようには容易に世界

のトップランナーには成れない。

問題は言語と政治体制にある。これまでの歴史におい

てアルファベット世界が世界の覇権を握ってきた。そ

れは学習が容易で早期に支配を完成しやすいからであ

る。また社会主義、共産主義の国家は歴史上覇権を握

れてない。中国が今のアメリカになるには英語の公用

語化し、今の政治路線を完全にやめるしないだろうと

思う。そうなればもともと備わっている中華思想とい

いうエートスで1世紀ぐらいは世界に君臨するだろう。

そこで日本の道は中国との共存ということになる。AU

(Asian Union)である。先に日本が提唱、結成すれば、

アメリカが英国に足を向けられないように、少なくても

精神面における優位は保てるだろう(中国民族は先生、

先に生まれた人を尊敬する)。

次の世界はAU,US,EU,IU(イスラム共同体)の多極化

時代という可能性もあるわけである。その次の時代に

はそれにAFU(アフリカ共同体)が加わるだろう。



2)最近、タブロイド紙などで北朝鮮におけるリスク

がよく報じられている。最たるものは「金正日」や息

子の暗殺未遂事件である。金正日書記の「太陽路線」

に対し不満を抱いている分子は相当数存するものとさ

れ、彼らが黒幕となって様々な動きがあるといわれて

いる。おそらく、旧ソ連、東ヨーロッパと同様に大き

な歴史の流れを変えることはできないだろう。

しかし、朝鮮半島の動きは一時的に日本やアジア市場

を揺るがすかも知れない。易によれば酉年は騒がしい

のである。

3)中東情勢

これについては別途報告を行う。

|

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